Mustansar Hussain Tasir
Exclusive Article
No sane mind can deny this fact that for the stability, prosperity and development, establishment of long-lasting peace in the region, normalization between India and Pakistan is indispensable. The contested issues between both countries have led them to engage in an arms race to subdue each other, meet security dilemmas and to maintain deterrent capabilities. With an utter neglect towards social sectors, defense of both states has been gnawing lion’s share of their respective national exchequers right from the very inception. This situation has become more dismal and startling especially in the wake of natural catastrophes and population explosion. As in international politics, every state strives to secure its national interests; neither of the South Asian belligerents is ready to give-up from their stated positions on the disputed issues between the both. Sometime vested interests and cherished designs also prevent a state to move in positive direction.
But, on the other hand, it is also essential that strategic decisions made without going through necessary calculations and a proper cost-benefit analysis can produce dire and ever-lasting consequences for state’s wider interests. Pakistan government’s recent decision to grant India the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status is also one of the strategic decisions and must not be taken without thorough study of its implications for industry, economy, agriculture and all other vital interests of Pakistan. As all astute nations of the world do, Pakistan should take such crucial decision after all required deliberations and considerations. The question remains that “peace with India at state of what?” It is because for Pakistan, the repercussions of granting India with MFN status will be pernicious and it will be left with no other option but to accede to India’s regional hegemony, the design which India is out to fulfill from last few decades. MFN India will, not only jeopardy Pakistan political interests in the region but also the economic ones.
India though granted the same status to Pakistan in 1996, imposed non-tariff barriers to cripple the access of Pakistani products to Indian market. As a result of which, out of total India-Pakistan trade volume i.e. $1.4 billion, Pakistan’s export to India in the year 2009-10 remained $268 million while India exports to Pakistan was elevated to $1.2 billions. This is the trade imbalance Pakistan is already facing despite not granting India with MFN status and no rocket-science is required to gauge the gravity of the impact if the anticipated status is bestowed to India. Similarly, the number of importable products, which India allowed Pakistan to it were 850, while Pakistan allowed non-MFN India 1945 items to export it. This is also a wide gap already exiting in trade between them. After this decision is implemented, Indian exports to Pakistan will increase manifold and India will flood its products into Pakistani market of which Pakistan’s energy-stricken nascent industry will never be able to compete, thus sooner or later meeting its tragic end.
Then if one makes a comparative analysis of the agriculture sectors of both the states, one can assess the huge difference present between the both due to asymmetry of subsidies extended to the farmers of the respective states and unequal availability of water resources. Prices of fertilizers, availability of modern machinery, energy resources for electric tube-wells and above all allocation of budget for the sector are the areas in which Pakistan is far behind India to match. Especially the scarcity of water and the pace, with which this deficiency is making its way, is really alarming. Already in Indus Basin the availability of water has fallen to the level of 1,329 Cubic Metre per capita per year which is significantly below the required threshold of 1,700 Cubic Metre per capita per year. The reason of this shortage is partially environmental and partially of water-diversion by India through construction of dam on the river of Pakistan’s share. So keeping this scenario in view, anticipating that through MFN status to India, Pakistani raw material will make its headway to Indian market is nothing other than living in fool’s paradise.
If Pakistan grants this controversial status without first addressing the concerns and filling the gaps will make Pakistan potent and Pakistan will deprive most of the leverages it already enjoys. This decision will also assist India to plead its case in the comity of nations for UNSC permanent membership. In short, pursuit of this decision by present government without necessary homework is just like pushing the nation into the swamps of slavery where there are no strong footings.
The article is contributed to pkarticleshub.com. The writer can be reached at mustansardss@hotmail.com
Sir you have done a wonderful job by revealing certain factors but dont you think that in the longer run it will benfit pakistan.
How it will be, let me explain. Today, Chinese products are used in Pakistan.When Indian products will enter in our country there will be competition. One who has cheaper rates will get the market.Hence, it is in Pakistan’s interest.
Besides this, Healthy competition between the two countries will take place. Furthermore, we need pragmatic policies for good governance which can ensure uninteruppted supply of energy for our industries.I think those who are sitting in the helm of affairs have delibrately thought about these factors and after that taken such decision.
Today, those who have been supporting the change want defence spending for themselves to survive. The concept should be seen through political economy lens.