Zernish Javed
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As America and its allies move towards the draw-down date of 2014, and India continues to gain an enhanced role in the Afghan affairs, it raises very serious questions and indeed holds multidimensional implications for Pakistan. What will be the future of Pak-Afghan relations under the Indian shadows is a mind boggling question. It becomes even pertinent in the backdrop of Mohmand incident and resultant Pak-US tension.
Developments in Afghanistan have always affected the region in general and Pakistan in particular. Stability across both sides of the borders is, indeed, compulsory for peace and security in the region. There are several factors likely to affect the course of Pakistan’s future policy towards Afghanistan. US President Barack Obama declared withdrawal of NATO/US troops from Afghanistan by 2014. With that withdrawal responsibility of security and governance moves towards Kabul government. This announcement awakened the hope of peace in Afghanistan but also provides new theater to Indo–Pak tussle and proxy war in Afghanistan where both countries compete for political influence and a friendly government in Kabul. Issue of Durand Line, changing dynamics of Pakistan–US relations, increasing India–US strategic ties, Indian encirclement, interests of other countries like China, Iran, Japan and other states in the region are some of the elements effecting Pak-Afghan relations.
Pakistan and Afghanistan relations have never been smooth, rather a painful experience. Pakistan’s determines to promote closer fellowship and cooperation between Muslim countries especially with Afghanistan, as it occupied more important place in Pakistan’s foreign policy due to its location, commonality of its ethnically Pakhtoon population and socio-cultural history. Durand Line Issue, Pakhtoonistan Issue, Interference into each other’s internal affairs, foreign hand and particularly Indian Factors are those points playing role in making and breaking of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
India and Afghanistan share sound relationships historically that was stained only when Taliban ruled Afghanistan.. India, now in post 9/11 setting has been increasing its influence in the region and especially in Afghanistan. Its policies are linked with its own ambitions to be the ‘regional superpower’. New Delhi maintains that it has large economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan as a transit country and partner to regional strategy and ensuring healthy relationship with Afghanistan is in its interest. In this regard Afghanistan is anticipated to be a new stage for unresolved rivalry between Pakistan and India. India’s presence and friendly government with Afghanistan provide her an opportunity from where she can keep a closer eye on Pakistan. India allegedly supports Baloch and Wazir insurgencies inside Pakistan and is linked to the Karzai government and Afghan warlords, suggesting to Pakistan that Panjshiri rather than Pashtun dominance prevails in Afghanistan, which is inherently unfavorable to Islamabad.
Pakistan is naturally doubtful about Indian presence in Afghanistan. It is feared in Pakistan that this presence foments violent unrest inside Pakistan – in particular the movements in the border areas of Baluchistan and FATA where the Indian secret service Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is supposed of aiding insurgents by offering specialized training, weapons and ammunition. Pakistan fears being trapped in a two-front situation with India to the east and a heavily India-friendly Afghanistan to its west. Such a strategy of hostile encirclement has damaged both Afghanistan’s internal security as well as that of the region. Pakistan is not comfortable of a non-Pashtun government in Kabul, fearing it to be pro-India and opposed to Pakistan. It is, therefore, a top priority of Pakistan to ensure a friendly Afghan regime.
The role of the US, too, affects the political and security landscape of the subcontinent. US announced to withdraw from Afghanistan fully in 2014 but it seems that it actually wants to ensure its presence in the region in form of unidentified number of its troops for an undetermined period of time after 2014 in the name of training and supporting the Afghanistan’s new army. The US is also suspicious about China’s increasing influence and its presence in the region in this consideration US is supporting India and increasing its strategic ties with it to counter China through India. Changing dynamics of Pakistan–US relations, especially concerning growing India–US ties, are also essential in guiding Pakistan’s strategic steps towards Afghanistan and the region as a whole. Pakistan remains embittered by US–India civil–nuclear energy deals. The US favoritism towards India enlarged suspicion in Pakistan, intensifying both regional tension and Indo–Pak rivalry. In response to Washington’s perceived shift towards India, Islamabad seeks to strengthen ties to Beijing. China has provided Pakistan with military aid and, increasingly, infrastructure development.
All neighboring states are playing their role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. China is a major economic stakeholder in Afghanistan, likely to become the largest provider of foreign direct investment in the country. Along with China, other states like Russia, Japan, Iran and Pakistan were also in favor of U.S withdrawal but New Delhi fears that US withdrawal from Afghan will allow Islamabad and the Taliban to resume power and empower an anti-India government. It has voiced its concerns to both the US and Afghanistan over such aspects of changeover process in Afghanistan that involve providing representation to the Taliban.
The US wants negotiation with Taliban but US backing of recent Kabul–Taliban talks and its openness to allowing some Taliban to join the Afghan government led New Delhi to consider forming a alliance with Iran, as well as Russia and Central Asian states who are unenthusiastic to seeing the Taliban poised to takeover. As Iran, and Pakistan, feel threatened about their nuclear program from NATO/US forces, this factor might bring them closer; each can press their particular representative friends in Afghanistan for mutual accommodations.
Till now India has pledged up to US$1.2 billion to Afghanistan, making it the largest regional donor and a top five global contributor. There are presently 4,000 Indian citizens involved in reconstruction and development programs in Afghanistan. Despite their differences, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been looking towards peaceful projects that would help improving relations between the two nations as well as benefit the security situation of the region as a whole. Yet, Pakistan does have inherent advantages as well. Deepening economic cooperation, and especially bilateral trade and streamlining of transit trade, has been a key component of the Pakistan–Afghanistan Joint Economic Commission. Afghanistan’s number one trading partner (imports) is Pakistan and its third largest export market is to be found in Pakistan.
Will India gain more prominence in the wake of Pak-US tensions after the Mohamed attack on November 26, and Pakistan’s refusal to attend Bonn Summit? Likely yes. It is, therefore, time for Pakistan to plan and play its cards effectively, campaigning for more regional and particularly Chinese and Russian involvement in the affairs of Afghanistan. (ENDS)
-Zernish Javed is DDS student at the Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi
The article is contributed to pkarticleshub.com
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