By M Y Qaisrani
The super-flood which brought large scale humanitarian crisis and severely damaged the physical infrastructure worth hundreds of billions of rupees, has also brought home the thought that we should ponder over the possibilities of harnessing our rivers.
It is necessary not only to avoid the repetitions of such calamities in future but also to utilize maximum possible potential of our lands for food security. Flood’s swamps not yet dried up fully in the country, the water shortage for Rabi season this year is looming large on the horizon.
If we look at the history, partition plan devised by the British for the sub-continent at the time of Independence, left several issues, including that of the waters, unsettled. In these unsettled conditions, India, in April 1948, abruptly stopped supply of waters to the canals and some distributaries that irrigated the areas of Pakistani Punjab and the then Bahawalpur state. These originated from the head works situated in the Indian Punjab. Though the supply was restored partially after a month or so, on signing of an Inter-Dominion agreement, but the bitterness created by India’s action continued to haunt the minds and memories in Pakistan. (This agreement, with very unfavourable conditions for Pakistan, was rejected by Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan). The world community finally intervened through the World Bank. After lengthy and painstaking negotiations spanning over more than a decade, the Indus Waters Treaty was arrived at between the two nations.
The Treaty signed by President Ayub Khan and Prime Minister Nehru (and World Bank chief) on Sep 19, 1960 at Karachi, is still holding despite two full wars and several war-like situations between the two States. This treaty, among others, provided mechanism for resolution of any possible water disputes between them. But due to rise in water requirements for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation in both the countries, unfortunately the upper riparian India has been over-stretching the limits of this treaty, putting severe strains on it. Pakistan disputes several water reservoir projects by India. Moreover, some new factors and changing circumstances, not envisaged in the Treaty, have been causing stresses on it. Apart from that, there has always remained a pressure on Indian government by right wing Hindu extremists for unilateral abrogation or revoking of the Treaty on one or the other pretext. The Indian government, probably sensing the absurdity of demands of revoking a treaty, guaranteed by international community, has not so far taken them seriously. But such voices can create uncertainty and distrust.
While India has taken full advantages out of the Treaty, Pakistan for various reasons has so far been unable to use optimum potential offered by it. The main failure on Pakistan’s part is its inability to construct sufficient water reservoirs. Pakistan has water storage capacity only for 30 days of its present irrigation needs, in case drought or severe dry weather conditions set in. Such situation may also arise, if India manipulates the flow of the tributaries of the Indus, through her disputed Dams. Pakistan needs more water reservoirs, but financial resources allocations have remained insufficient. Pakistan has spent too little on new water storage and hydroelectric power projects. Reports show that work on $12 billion giant Diamir-Bhasha Dam, (to store 8 MAF water and generate 4500 MW electricity) is not picking pace and completion of the project within schedule seems unlikely. The Kala Bagh Dam – ‘the most feasible and economically viable project’ according to the Ministry of Water & Power – with storage capacity almost equal to that of Diamir-Bhasha and power generation of 3600 MW, stands abandoned due to internal (engineered) disputes. There is no wisdom in delaying or disputing the construction of water reservoirs, when we allow draining out tens of MAF water to the sea, while we have millions of acres of barren lands. (The requirement of water downstream Kotri barrage was assessed to be 8.6 MAF / year by a panel of foreign, impartial experts. Whereas, even conservatively estimated, about 54 MAF water has been drained out in the sea, during only the flood days this year; close to five times of our present total water storage capacity.)
Other small or medium Dams projects, mostly on the streams other than the Indus River, when viewed vis-à-vis the country’s overall water requirements, are negligible. On the other hand, a good numbers out of the public & private tube-wells which catered for a portion of the irrigation needs since 1970s onwards, have been abandoned due to prohibitive electricity Tariff, unfavorable policies by WAPDA / PEPCO since start of this decade and sub-soil water having plunged or become brackish because of non-recharging.
The scenario looks grim. India’s disputed projects are generally termed by people in Pakistan as “water terrorism”. Despite India’s claims that her Dams projects are within the ambit of IWT, these can affect water flow to Pakistan if India starts filling them up at the time when Pakistan needs water. The conflicting water requirements between these nuclear neighbors pose possibility of triggering an armed clash; a horrible scenario, given the arsenals at their disposal. The world should not sit away as silent spectators. And hopefully they would not. The U.S State Department has already identified water as a central concern of their foreign policy. The Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, had stated some months before, that Pakistan would be given liberal assistance to overcome its water and energy problems. The U.S President Obama visited India last month, to have wide range of talks with Indian leaders. It would be appropriable if water issues between Pakistan and India were also attended to in these talks. However, in any case, the primary responsibility rests with the leaders of both Pakistan and India to overcome the hangover of earlier bitterness and have a fresh start in bilateral relations.
—The writer is a retired Director of WAPDA Staff College, Islamabad.
